Wednesday, August 27, 2014

TEPCO Ordered To Pay Widower $500,000

Mikio Watanabe holds a picture of his late wife
 
The operator of the stricken Fukushima nuclear power plant could face a barrage of lawsuits after a Japanese court ruled that it was to blame for a suicide, following the disaster of March 2011 that led to catastrophic fallout for the nation.

The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) has been struggling with the consequences of the post-earthquake nuclear leak for three years now, without notable success and with much blame directed at it for the mishandling of the crisis. 

Now, a lawsuit by Mikio Watanabe, a resident of Fukushima Prefecture, is causing trouble for the power plant operator. Watanable’s wife, Hamako, 58, suffered severe depression in the wake of the tragedy, and committed suicide by dousing herself in gasoline and setting herself on fire. 

The nuclear utility will have to pay 49 million yen ($472,000) in damages in a first-of-its-kind ruling in the three years since the July tsunami and earthquake released a wave of deadly radiation into the environment and derailed the surrounding settlements’ way of life for decades to come. 

The Watanabe household was one such case. Their home was located about 40 kilometers away from Reactor 1. When the couple and their relatives were relocated, Hamako’s mental state began to seriously deteriorate. It is said she could not foresee a future away from her home. 

The truth hit especially hard when the chicken farm the couple had been tending after the incident closed in June the following year. 

It was later learned that she had also had sleeping problems and was on medication for it prior to the accident at the power plant. 

"We would like to deeply apologize again for the disruption and concern that the Fukushima Daiichi accident caused to many people, first and foremost the people of Fukushima," TEPCO told the press following the ruling. 

"We understand that there has been a verdict handed down in this case. We will study the verdict and respond in a sincere way," the statement added. "We pray that Hamako Watanabe has found peace."
 
Mikio Watanabe told Reuters that he was “satisfied with the decision,” adding that he believed his wife would have been too. 

Although this is considered to be a landmark ruling, TEPCO is believed to have settled a few suicide-related disputes in the past, but it won’t release numbers or figures. The only known case to date concerned the family of a bereaved farmer, but it was an out-of-court settlement that took place before the catastrophe at the plant. 

One litigant, Toru Takeda, 73, also expressed his agreement with the Watanabe verdict, believing that it should go some way to settling his own dispute with the power company. He has been unable to return home following the events of 2011. 

"Our verdict will come next month from the same court, so, of course, we welcome this outcome," he told the agency. 

According to Watanabe’s lawyer, Tsuguo Hirota, the suit against TEPCO now threatens to set a major precedent for similar claims by others who have been affected by the catastrophic fallout. They number 150,000, or about 50,000 households. 

Those thousands have lost their homes and way of life. The majority remain displaced, while about a third, among them Watanabe, have been provided temporary housing, amid nationwide efforts at decontamination and nuclear cleanup of the surrounding area. 

Apart from affecting residents’ livelihoods, the local fauna has been irreparably damaged.

It is estimated that the wider cleanup effort will last for several decades and cost billions of dollars.  

Reuters

Monday, August 25, 2014

Brazil Downs Japan For Title

 
Reigning Olympic champions Brazil swept the previously unbeaten Japanese team 3-0 in a title showdown Sunday evening to win the trophy of the FIVB World Grand Prix for a record tenth time. 

Going into the last match as the leaders on the standings with 12 points, Japan needed to win only two sets to secure their first World Grand Prix title. However, the defending champions prevailed in three sets 25-15, 25-18, 27-25. The Brazilian women have now won one more title in the World Grand Prix than the Brazilian men have won in the World League.

Following an opening upset 3-2 loss to Turkey on Wednesday, Brazil bounced back with four consecutive straight set wins to be crowned again in the premier annual FIVB women’s volleyball tournament. The United States, the second most successful team in the World Grand Prix, have won the championships five times.

The Japanese women, who have played in all 22 editions of the tournament along with China, could be satisfied with the silver, their first podium finish in the World Grand Prix. Before the loss against Brazil, Japan have won eight matches in a row connecting the preliminary rounds and the Finals and it was their longest winning streak in the World Grand Prix.

Earlier on Sunday, Russia came from two sets down to beat China 3-2 (21-25, 14-25, 25-22, 25-20, 15-13) for the bronze. It was their first World Grand Prix medal since a silver in 2009.

Turkey beat World Grand Prix Finals debutants Belgium 3-1 (24-26, 25-21, 25-23, 25-20) in the other match of the last round to finish fourth ahead of China with seven points from five games. China settled for the fifth place on six points while the winless Belgians were at the bottom.

Sport International

Friday, August 15, 2014

Has Japan Learned From WWII?


Japan's militarist nationalists never really went away after World War II, they just bided their time and waited for the day when they would be able to return to power. At last, they have done so; Shinzo Abe, the current prime minister, is the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, an important WWII nationalist whom the U.S. initially imprisoned for war crimes, and later let out (probably to fight against Communism), and who himself because prime minister of Japan in the 50s. It's not clear whether Abe himself thinks his ancestors did anything wrong in the militarist era, but many of his political appointees clearly do not think so.

 Naoki Hyakuta, whom Abe appointed to the board of governors of Japan's public broadcaster, claims that Japan committed no atrocities in World War II and was acting to free Asia of Western colonialism. Another board member described the Japanese Emperor as "a living God."

The return of the rightists seems to lend credence to the claims of China and Korea that Japan as a country has not properly atoned for World War II. If people who think Japan was on the side of good can gain national power, then the country as a whole must agree with them...right? Sure, Japan has made a litany of apologies for World War II, and even offered some monetary reparations. But mustn't those have been pro forma gestures to appease the United States, rather than heartfelt expressions of regret?

Actually, I don't think this is the case. Japan's rightists have power now, but that seems due much more to Japan's dysfunctional political system than to any general militarist/nationalist sentiment among the Japanese people and elites.

To see this, look at the votes cast on the 1995 "Fusen Ketsugi" resolution. That resolution was an apology for World War II. The text read:

The House of Representatives resolves as follows:
On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II, this House offers its sincere condolences to those who fell in action and victims of wars and similar actions all over the world.
Solemnly reflecting upon many instances of colonial rule and acts of aggression in the modern history of the world, and recognizing that Japan carried out those acts in the past, inflicting pain and suffering upon the peoples of other countries, especially in Asia, the Members of this House express a sense of deep remorse.
We must transcend the differences over historical views of the past war and learn humbly the lessons of history so as to build a peaceful international society.
This House expresses its resolve, under the banner of eternal peace enshrined in the Constitution of Japan, to join hands with other nations of the world and to pave the way to a future that allows all human beings to live together.

This resolution was approved, but almost half of the members of the Diet abstained from voting! This means they didn't believe Japan should apologize, right?

Actually, no. A large number of the abstainers wanted an even stronger apology. From Wikipedia:

Out of 502 representatives, 251 participated in the final vote on the revised resolution, and 230 of them supported the resolution; 241 representatives abstained from voting; 70 absentees belonged in one of the three parties in the coalition cabinet that sponsored the resolution (Japan Socialist Party, Liberal Democratic Party, and New Party Sakigake)
14 members of the Japanese Communist Party voted against the resolution because they wanted much stronger expressions in the resolution.
50 members of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party did not participate because the expressions in the revised resolution were still too strong for them.
14 members of the Japan Socialist Party did not participate because the expressions were not strong enough for them.
141 members of New Frontier Party abstained from voting, some of whom wanted stronger expressions. [Wikipedia]

So if we total up those who voted against the bill with those who abstained because the apology was too strong for them, we get at least 71 out of 502 representatives, or 14 percent. Now, some of the New Frontier Party might also have believed that the apology was too strong, so let's conservatively assume that half of them, or 71/502, believed this; that brings the total percentage of Imperial apologists to 28 percent. Fourteen percent is not that big of a bloc, but 28 percent is a pretty substantial minority.

But either way, we see that a majority of Japanese politicians supported a World War II apology in 1995. Now, 1995 may have been an unusually liberal moment for Japan; perhaps the electorate voted for a less nationalist Diet than they would prefer?

Actually, polls suggest that the Japanese public is less nationalistic than its politicians. This supports the notion that it is Japan's dysfunctional political system, which is dominated by old political families, that keeps the thin flame of militarism/nationalism alive. At the elite level, there is a non-trivial minority of Japanese bluebloods who thought World War II was the right thing to do. But they are definitely a minority, and their attitude is not shared by the Japanese public. (Caveat: Among young people, right-wing attitudes may have become more common in recent years.)

In other words, the Chinese and Korean perceptions of an unrepentant Japan are not very accurate. But Japan itself has a serious problem: It finds itself ruled by a right-wing fringe element. Unless Japanese people can shake off their traditional attitude of political powerlessness, apathy, and ennui, they will increasingly find their country being moved in a direction they don't like. Freedom ain't free, folks.
 
Noah Smith

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Japan's Real GDP Plummets 6.8%



Japan’s economy shrank in the April-June period at its fastest pace in 13 quarters, as personal consumption tumbled following the April 1 consumption tax increase from 5 percent to 8 percent, government data showed Wednesday.

In price-adjusted real terms, the country’s gross domestic product contracted 6.8 percent at an annualized rate in the fiscal first quarter, marking the first negative growth in two quarters, the Cabinet Office said in a preliminary report.

The decline was the steepest since the 6.9 percent drop in GDP seen in January-March 2011, which reflected the aftermath of the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck the country’s northeast on March 11 that year.

The latest April-June fall was far bigger than the 3.5 percent decrease of April-June 1997, after the previous consumption tax increase from 3 percent to 5 percent.

Still, the results were better than the median forecast in a Jiji Press survey of 22 economic research institutes, which predicted a 7.2 percent drop.

Compared with the previous quarter, GDP shrank 1.7 percent in April-June. In nominal terms, GDP fell 0.1 percent from the previous quarter for an annualized drop of 0.4 percent, the government agency said.

Late this year Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is set to decide whether to proceed with a further increase in the consumption tax to 10 percent, currently planned for October 2015. One key factor will be how much the economy recovers in July-September.

Speaking to reporters in Shimonoseki, Yamaguchi Prefecture, Abe said the government is “ready to act in an appropriate manner to ensure that the economy is brought back to a growth path.”

At a press conference in Tokyo, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Akira Amari said that the economy is expected to stage a moderate recovery in the quarters to come.

“Effects from a backlash after the surge in demand before the April 1 consumption tax hike are likely to wane gradually,” he said.

Growth in July-September may be large, given the sharp shrinkage in April-June, but the fiscal first half is likely to turn out to be weak, said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co.

“Later, growth is expected to be weaker than estimated by the government and the Bank of Japan,” he said.

Personal consumption plunged 5.0 percent in April-June from the previous quarter, due chiefly to lower demand for vehicles and home appliances, marking its steepest decline since comparable data became available in January 1994 and the first drop in seven quarters.

Housing investment declined 10.3 percent and corporate capital expenditures fell 2.5 percent, reflecting a fall in demand after a last-minute surge before the latest tax increase.

Public investment fell 0.5 percent, down for the second straight quarter, mainly because of delays in public works projects. Exports declined 0.4 percent and imports fell 5.6 percent.

As a result, domestic demand made a negative contribution of 2.8 percentage points to the country’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth.

By contrast, external demand, or net exports, pushed up GDP growth by 1.1 points, the first positive contribution in four quarters.

The GDP deflator, a price trend gauge, rose 2.0 percent from a year before, marking its first gain since July-September 2009, due to effects from the consumption tax increase.

The country’s real GDP for October-December 2013 was revised down to a drop of 0.05 percent from the previous quarter for an annualized fall of 0.2 percent. Previously, the government had reported positive growth for the period.

Jiji Press

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Revising History In Japanese Schools

Mariko Oi

Japanese people often fail to understand why neighbouring countries harbour a grudge over events that happened in the 1930s and 40s. The reason, in many cases, is that Japanese students barely learned any 20th Century history. I myself only got a full picture when I left Japan and went to school in Australia. 

This time of year as Japan marks the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings leaves many Japanese people younger than 60 wondering why the world seems to hate Japan so much.  The Chinese and Korean media seem to endlessly run story after story of negativity aimed at Japan.  The Hiroshima and Nagasaki Peace Museums seem full of Japanese but they wonder why the American, British, Australian, and even German tourists to these cities choose to stay away.

From Homo erectus to the present day - more than a million years of history in just one year of lessons at Japanese high schools. That is how, at the age of 14, I first learned of Japan's relations with the outside world.

For three hours a week - 105 hours over the year - we edged towards the 20th Century.

It's hardly surprising that some classes, in some schools, never get there, and are told by teachers to finish the book in their spare time.

When I returned recently to my old school, Sacred Heart in Tokyo, teachers told me they often have to start hurrying, near the end of the year, to make sure they have time for World War II. 

"When I joined Sacred Heart as a teacher, I was asked by the principal to make sure that I teach all the way up to modern history," says my history teacher from Year Eight. 

"We have strong ties with our sister schools in the Asian region so we want our students to understand Japan's historical relationship with our neighbouring countries." 

I still remember her telling the class, 17 years ago, about the importance of Japan's war history and making the point that many of today's geopolitical tensions stem from what happened then.

also remember wondering why we couldn't go straight to that period if it was so important, instead of wasting time on the Pleistocene epoch.
When we did finally get there, it turned out only 19 of the book's 357 pages dealt with events between 1931 and 1945. 


There was one page on what is known as the Mukden incident, when Japanese soldiers blew up a railway in Manchuria in China in 1931. 

There was one page on other events leading up to the Sino-Japanese war in 1937 - including one line, in a footnote, about the massacre that took place when Japanese forces invaded Nanjing - the Nanjing Massacre, or Rape of Nanjing.

There was another sentence on the Koreans and the Chinese who were brought to Japan as miners during the war, and one line, again in a footnote, on "comfort women" - a prostitution corps created by the Imperial Army of Japan. 

There was also just one sentence on the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

I wanted to know more, but was not quite eager enough to delve into the subject in my spare time. As a teenager, I was more interested in fashion and boys. 

My friends had a chance to choose world history as a subject in Year 11. But by that stage I had left the Japanese schooling system, and was living in Australia.
I remember the excitement when I noticed that instead of ploughing chronologically through a given period, classes would focus on a handful of crucial events in world history. 

So brushing aside my teacher's objection that I would struggle with the high volume of reading and writing in English - a language I could barely converse in - I picked history as one of my subjects for the international baccalaureate.
My first ever essay in English was on the Rape of Nanjing. 

There is controversy over what happened. The Chinese say 300,000 were killed and many women were gang-raped by the Japanese soldiers, but as I spent six months researching all sides of the argument, I learned that some in Japan deny the incident altogether. 

Nobukatsu Fujioka is one of them and the author of one of the books that I read as part of my research. 

"It was a battlefield so people were killed but there was no systematic massacre or rape," he says, when I meet him in Tokyo.

"The Chinese government hired actors and actresses, pretending to be the victims when they invited some Japanese journalists to write about them.
"All of the photographs that China uses as evidence of the massacre are fabricated because the same picture of decapitated heads, for example, has emerged as a photograph from the civil war between Kuomintang and Communist parties." 

As a 17-year-old student, I was not trying to make a definitive judgement on what exactly happened, but reading a dozen books on the incident at least allowed me to understand why many people in China still feel bitter about Japan's military past. 

While school pupils in Japan may read just one line on the massacre, children in China are taught in detail not just about the Rape of Nanjing but numerous other Japanese war crimes, though these accounts of the war are sometimes criticised for being overly anti-Japanese. 

The same can be said about South Korea, where the education system places great emphasis on our modern history. This has resulted in very different perceptions of the same events in countries an hour's flying time apart.
One of the most contentious topics there is the comfort women. 

Fujioka believes they were paid prostitutes. But Japan's neighbours, such as South Korea and Taiwan, say they were forced to work as sex slaves for the Japanese army. 

Without knowing these debates, it is extremely difficult to grasp why recent territorial disputes with China or South Korea cause such an emotional reaction among our neighbours. The sheer hostility shown towards Japan by ordinary people in street demonstrations seems bewildering and even barbaric to many Japanese television viewers. 

Equally, Japanese people often find it hard to grasp why politicians' visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine - which honours war criminals among other Japanese soldiers - cause quite so much anger. 

I asked the children of some friends and colleagues how much history they had picked up during their school years. 

Twenty-year-old university student Nami Yoshida and her older sister Mai - both undergraduates studying science - say they haven't heard about comfort women.
"I've heard of the Nanjing massacre but I don't know what it's about," they both say. 

"At school, we learn more about what happened a long time ago, like the samurai era," Nami adds. 

Seventeen-year-old Yuki Tsukamoto says the "Mukden incident" and Japan's invasion of the Korean peninsula in the late 16th Century help to explain Japan's unpopularity in the region. 

"I think it is understandable that some people are upset, because no-one wants their own country to be invaded," he says. 

But he too is unaware of the plight of the comfort women. 

Former history teacher and scholar Tamaki Matsuoka holds Japan's education system responsible for a number of the country's foreign relations difficulties.
"Our system has been creating young people who get annoyed by all the complaints that China and South Korea make about war atrocities because they are not taught what they are complaining about," she said. 

"It is very dangerous because some of them may resort to the internet to get more information and then they start believing the nationalists' views that Japan did nothing wrong." 

I first saw her work, based on interviews with Japanese soldiers who invaded Nanjing, when I visited the museum in the city a few years ago. 

"There were many testimonies by the victims but I thought we needed to hear from the soldiers," she says.

"It took me many years but I interviewed 250 of them. Many initially refused to talk, but eventually, they admitted to killing, stealing and raping." 

When I saw her video interviews of the soldiers, it was not just their admission of war crimes which shocked me, it was their age. Already elderly by the time she interviewed them, many had been barely 20 at the time, and in a strange way, it humanised them. 

I was choked with an extremely complex emotion. Sad to see Japan repeatedly described as evil and dubbed "the devil", and nervous because I wondered how people around me would react if they knew I was Japanese. But there was also the big question why - what drove these young soldiers to kill and rape? 

When Matsuoka published her book, she received many threats from nationalist groups. 

She and Fujioka represent two opposing camps in a debate about what should be taught in Japanese schools. 

Fujioka and his Japanese Society for History Textbook Reform say most textbooks are "masochistic" and only teach about Japan in negative light.

"The Japanese textbook authorisation system has the so-called "neighbouring country clause" which means that textbooks have to show understanding in their treatment of historical events involving neighbouring Asian countries. It is just ridiculous," he says. 

He is widely known for pressuring politicians to remove the term "comfort women" from all the junior high school textbooks. His first textbook, which won government approval in 2001, made a brief reference to the death of Chinese soldiers and civilians in Nanjing, but he plans to tone it down further in his next book.

But is ignorance the solution? 

The Ministry of Education's guidelines for junior high schools state that all children must be taught about Japan's "historical relations with its Asian neighbours and the catastrophic damage caused by the World War II to humanity at large".

"That means schools have to teach about the Japanese military's increased influence and extension of its power [in the 1930s] and the prolonged war in China," says ministry spokesman Akihiko Horiuchi.

"Students learn about the extent of the damage caused by Japan in many countries during the war as well as sufferings that the Japanese people had to experience especially in Hiroshima, Nagasaki and Okinawa in order to understand the importance of international co-operation and peace. 

"Based on our guideline, each school decides which specific events they focus on depending on the areas and the situation of the school and the students' maturity." 

Matsuoka, however, thinks the government deliberately tries not to teach young people the details of Japan's atrocities. 

Having experienced history education in two countries, the way history is taught in Japan has at least one advantage - students come away with a comprehensive understanding of when events happened, in what order.

In many ways, my schoolfriends and I were lucky. Because junior high students were all but guaranteed a place in the senior high school, not many had to go through what's often described as the "examination war". 


For students who are competing to get into a good senior high school or university, the race is extremely tough and requires memorisation of hundreds of historical dates, on top of all the other subjects that have to be studied.

They have no time to dwell on a few pages of war atrocities, even if they read them in their textbooks. 

All this has resulted in Japan's Asian neighbours - especially China and South Korea - accusing the country of glossing over its war atrocities. 

Meanwhile, Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe criticises China's school curriculum for being too "anti-Japanese". 

He, like Fujioka, wants to change how history is taught in Japan so that children can be proud of our past, and is considering revising Japan's 1993 apology over the comfort women issue

If and when that happens, it will undoubtedly cause a huge stir with our Asian neighbours. And yet, many Japanese will have no clue why it is such a big deal.

Mariko Oi

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Japan To Test New Zero Stealth Fighter Next Year

 
Computer Model of the New Zero Stealth Fighter

A group of major Japanese firms are planning a test flight next year for the nation's first homegrown New Zero stealth fighter jet, a report said Tuesday.

The consortium -- led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries -- is developing a jet that has similar technology to US-made F-35 stealth fighters, with a prototype set for a test run in January, the Mainichi newspaper said.

About 39.2 billion yen ($384 million) has been invested in the project, said the report,which was confirmed by sources in the defence ministry.

Following the initial flight, the jet will undergo about two years of testing at the defence ministry with Tokyo set to decide on whether to buy the plane by early 2019, it added.

Japan, which sees a security alliance with the United States as a cornerstone of its foreign policy, has long depended on US manufacturers for military hardware.

Prime Minister Abe's conservative government has been looking to expand Japan's military influence, and has relaxed a self-imposed ban on weapons exports.

Last month, Tokyo loosened the bonds on Japan's powerful military, proclaiming the right to go into battle in defence of allies, in a highly controversial shift for the officially pacifist country.

The development of a homegrown jet comes amid worsening tensions with Beijing over rival claims to islands in the East China Sea.

Japan said last month that its military scrambled fighter jets a record 340 times in the three months to June in response to feared intrusions on its airspace.

Chinese government ships and planes have been seen off the disputed islands dozens of times since Japan nationalized some of the archipelago nearly two years ago.

Monday, August 11, 2014

10 Dead, 86 Injured From Typhoon Halong

Vehicles in Shikoku

Ten people died and dozens were injured when Typhoon Halong moved through the Japanese archipelago over the weekend, reports said Monday, with heavy rain still lashing the country’s north.

The storm moved out over the Sea of Japan Monday morning, after making landfall on Honshu early Sunday morning.

The outer bands of the storm were continuing to batter northern Japan with heavy rain as officials warned of landslides, floods and possible tornadoes in the area.

The agency downgraded the typhoon to a tropical storm at 9 a.m. Monday as it headed toward the far eastern coast of Russia.

The storm, as well as heavy rain last week, killed two people and injured 86 across the country, public broadcaster NHK reported. But the Nikkei newspaper said as many as 10 deaths were linked to the storm.

Among the victims, the body of an Iranian man was found in Ibaraki, northeast of Tokyo, along with two Japanese women in Sakai and Takamatsu, in the country’s west, the Nikkei said.

The National Police Agency declined to confirm the number of deaths from the storm, saying it had yet to compile a nationwide total.

The coast guard on Monday resumed searching for a man who went missing apparently while surfing off Wakayama in western Japan during the storm.
“Police and the coast guard dispatched one rescue boat and two helicopters but we have not found any sign of him,” a police spokesman said.

The weather agency had issued its highest warning on Saturday—meaning a threat to life and the risk of massive damage—for Mie Prefecture, some 300 kilometers west of Tokyo. 

The warning, which was lifted Sunday afternoon, said there could be “unprecedented” torrential rain that might trigger massive landslides and floods.
Local authorities, mainly in western Japan, issued evacuation advisories to more than 1.6 million people in total, NHK said.

Airline services largely returned to normal with just a handful of flights cancelled on Monday after more than 700 flights were called off during the weekend, which came just as Japan began its annual “Obon” summer holiday. 

NHK, Nikkei

Typhoon Halong Now Threatens Russia

Shikoku Storm Surge

Typhoon Halong just will not stop and after leaving Japan into the Sea of Japan has grown in strength again.  

Typhoon Halong, a powerful storm that has already wreaked havoc in Japan, is expected to make landfall in Russia's Far East by Monday evening, Primorye region officials warned. 

Flooding, power outages and other material damage can be expected as a result of the brutal storm, the Emergency Situations Ministry's regional branch said in a warning issued Saturday.

According to the warning, up to 120 millimeters of rainfall could inundate the region in less than 12 hours. The water levels of the region's rivers are also expected to rise by at least half a meter.

The ministry encouraged Primorye residents to forego outdoor pursuits such as fishing and hunting until the storm passes. 

Authorities added that Vladivostok, a city of 600,000 that serves as the administrative center of the Primorye region, would not be spared the storm's impact.

Typhoon Halong made landfall in Japan on Saturday near the southwestern city of Aki. As of Sunday afternoon, the storm had killed two people and injured 43 others, according to Japanese broadcaster NHK.  One man was swept away by a river in Mie Prefecture and another man in Hyogo Prefecture drowned while surfing in the storm surge at a local beach.

More than a million residents in Japan had reportedly been evacuated from their homes to escape Halong's wrath.  They returned to their homes on Sunday evening.

NHK, Jiji, Kyodo

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Halong Claims One Life

Eye of Halong Over Sea of Japan

Japan's national broadcaster NHK is reporting one man was washed away in an overflowing river in Gifu Prefecture and later died in hospital, while more than 30 others were wounded. 

A surfer has also been reported missing off the coast of Wakayama Prefecture.

Japanese authorities have now ordered 1.6 million people out of the path of the powerful storm which has lashed affected areas with strong winds and torrential rain.

More than 200 fights have been cancelled today and some bullet trains suspended service, leaving many passengers stranded, including holidaymakers as Japan begins its annual "Obon" summer holiday.

Typhoon Halong has moved back to sea to the Sea of Japan after moving over Japan's main island, Honshu.

Forecasters have predicted heavy winds and around 40cm of rain to be dumped on eastern japan, including the Tokyo metropolitan area. 

Japan's Meteorological Agency said Typhoon Halong made landfall near Aki, Koshi Prefecture on Shikoku Island around 6am local time on Sunday. 

On Saturday, Typhoon Halong was packing winds of up to 198 kilometres per hour, the outer bands of the storm have already brought bad weather to large areas of the Japanese archipelago. 

Local television footage has shown high waves triggered by the typhoon splashing over breakwaters.

Storm weather and torrential rains earlier this week has left one dead and four injured, NHK says.

Halong comes a month after Typhoon Neoguri killed several people and left a trail of destruction in southern Japan.

Last weekend, a man drowned in a raging river while more than half a million people were advised to evacuate as heavy rain from Typhoon Nakri lashed the country.

NHK

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Typhoon Halong Moves Closer To Shikoku



Typhoon Halong lashed large areas of southwest Japan on Saturday, grounding some 460 flights and stranding thousands of Obon holidaymakers.

Typhoon Halong, packing winds of up to 198 kilometres (123 miles) per hour, will make landfall in southwest Japan late today or early tomorrow, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The outer bands of the storm have already brought heavy rain and strong winds to large areas of the Japanese archipelago, as television footage showed high waves triggered by the typhoon splashing over breakwaters.

At least 460 flights were cancelled on Saturday across Japan due to the storm, which came as Japan had just begun its annual "Obon" summer holiday, NHK said.

Over the next 24 hours, the storm is expected to dump 70 centimetres (28 inches) of rain on the southwest island of Shikoku, which had already been flooded by by downpours from another typhoon last weekend, the national weather agency said.

The agency warned of major landslides and floods mainly in western Japan, while local authorities in Tokushima in Shikoku issued an evacuation advisory to some 44,100 residents, officials said.

The typhoon, which was about 100 kilometres off Shikoku's southern tip at  5:40 PM, Japan time, and was moving northeast at 15 kilometres per hour.

NHK, JMA

China's Legitimacy Problem



By now the statistics of China’s rise are well-known. It has the world’s second largest gross domestic product (GDP). It will likely overtake U.S. GDP in the next decade. It is the world’s second largest spender on defense. It aims to build a blue-water navy, including aircraft carriers. It likely already has the missile and drone ability to deny the U.S. Navy the ability to operate inside the “first island chain” (from southern Japan south through Taiwan and the Philippines to the South China Sea) without unacceptable losses. It has the world’s largest population: one in seven persons today is a Chinese national.

As Hugh White has argued, the U.S. has never faced a greater challenger in its history as a world power. The U.S. roughly emerged as a great power in the 1880s. In that time, it has faced four major challengers: German nationalism in WWI, fascism in World War II, communism in the Cold War, and millenarian jihadism in the war on terror. Only the Soviet challenger ever came close to the U.S. in terms of power resources. Hitler and bin Laden were arguably the most terrifying, but Stalinist power was much greater, and even that collapsed. China however exceeds all these in the resources it can muster. It is vastly better governed than the U.S.S.R. was, and far larger economically than Germany, Japan, and various Islamist states and groups. China is catching up, fast.

Chinese hegemony in the western Pacific is not inevitable. For one thing, it has many opponents. But for all sorts of reasons, a full-blown containment line from India east and north to Japan is increasingly unlikely. India is hesitant. Southeast Asia desperately wants to trade with China and be pulled up along with its rise, not balance against it. South Korea is as likely to align with Beijing against Japan as vice versa. That leaves Japan, Taiwan, and the U.S. This might be enough to deter Chinese ambition, but Japan has been struggling for decades, and the U.S. is overextended. White’s prediction that some kind of Sino-U.S. compromise is the best shot to avoid a disastrous Sino-U.S. conflict seems ever more likely. Chinese power in East Asia will likely have to be recognized at some point in the next two decades.

The follow-on question then for China is whether it can legitimate its incipient regional hegemony. Can it demonstrate to other local players that Chinese regional dominance does not simply mean tyranny? It is often suggested that China today seeks an updated tribute system. If so, this is not as bad as it sounds (assuming there is no alternative to Chinese hegemony). The tribute system demanded formal hierarchy but permitted informal near-equality. Specifically, it left the tributaries’ domestic politics alone (even in the closest tributary, Korea), and exerted only mild influence over foreign policy. That sounds an awful lot like what the U.S. already does in Latin America and Europe.

But American hegemony is moderated by a reasonably liberal ideology that gives participant states a say in the larger framework. States like Germany or Japan are not subjects of the United States, they are allies, and their exit option is real. If the U.S. is an “empire,” it is rather soft one. When France withdrew from NATO’s military integration in 1966, and when the Philippines voted the Americans out of their bases in 1992, the U.S. did nothing. When Soviet “allies” tried to exit the Warsaw Pact, they were crushed. In turn then, the Eastern European allies-turned-subjects gave up, slacked on their contribution to “socialist fraternity,” and became a burden for the Soviet Empire rather than an asset.

This should be a cautionary lesson for China. China is indeed powerful. That power will gain it regional fear and a grudging respect. To cross China is risky. But for power to last through the ups-and-downs of history, it must be more than just bullying. As Richard Armitage once said, “China will never be great until it stands for something more than itself.” Today, China is little more than that. Instead, as David Shambaugh put it: “China is, in essence, a very narrow-minded, self-interested, realist state, seeking only to maximize its own national interests and power. It cares little for global governance and enforcing global standards of behavior (except its much-vaunted doctrine of noninterference in the internal affairs of countries). Its economic policies are mercantilist and its diplomacy is passive. China is also a lonely strategic power, with no allies and experiencing distrust and strained relationships with much of the world.

This strategy is a recipe for short-term success (free-riding on the U.S. to continue to rise cheaply), medium-term regional discomfort (nearby states bristle at selfish “leadership”), and long-term decline (those nearby countries, upset at their poor treatment earlier, abandon China later in its time of need). As China rises dramatically over its neighbors, they will look for input into its choices, a sense of rules that give them some kind of place in a system, rather than serfdom in an extra-territorial despotism, and a language of power, a legitimating ideology that places restraints on Chinese power rather than simply exalting it. China’s current behavior in Xinxiang and Tibet, where Han nationalism and strict central control are being pushed onto a resistant periphery, are not good signs. China needs to build something more conciliatory and appealing to non-Chinese, akin to the U.S. liberal order that has netted the U.S. so many allies around the world.

This legitimating ideology must be some kind of intellectual framework, not raw ethnocentrism. Nationalism is not enough, even if it appeals to more than a billion people. Much as Putin’s aggressive Russian nationalism has alienated much of the Russian and post-Soviet periphery, so will China’s current ideology of nationalist grievance and resentment. Even North Korea and Myanmar, precisely the kind of repressive autocracies that should be comfortable with Beijing, have tacked away from it as they have increasingly realized that “alliance” with China means subordination in practice. Something more positive and supra-national is necessary.

Marxism, of course, sought to be this. It laid out an ideology of formal equality, and “socialist fraternity” might not have been a fraud if the Soviet Union had been more genuinely communist and less a cover for Russian nationalism and imperialism. But that is gone now of course. Liberalism too offers such a language of legitimated power that might re-assure others. U.S. liberalism has ensured reasonably good treatment of Canada and Mexico over the years: both have more or less stuck with the U.S. despite a huge power imbalance. But domestic liberalism is a non-starter for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

China’s own history suggests a neo-tribute system perhaps. That was indeed supra-ethnic. It was based a general willingness of peripheral states to accept the cultural superiority of Chinese Confucianism and the suzerainty of the emperor. While leaving peripheral states more or less free from intervention, it did require what would be today an unacceptable level of humiliation and groveling. Prestige-accrual was the central Chinese reward of the tribute system – the recognition and exaltation by others of China as the “Middle Kingdom” and center of civilization, even if the tributaries didn’t really believe that. But modern Asia is both highly nationalistic and post-Confucian in its international relations. China would struggle mightily to bring back such a feudal order convincingly. It would be asking Asia to swallow a lot of nationalist pride to re-introduce the old hierarchy and therefore strikes me as unlikely.

In brief, as Chinese power over Asia rises, it will increasingly need to define its position as more than just realpolitik and nationalist glory-seeking. If it cannot voluntarily win over its neighbors to cooperation, Chinese hegemony will be little more than a despotism. Perhaps that is all that Chinese leaders care for, but I doubt it. Most of us wish to be loved more than feared; China’s soft power exertions suggest that the CCP feels that too. But to date, the CCP has no real legitimating language of power for its neighborhood. Hence, for all its might, it continues to stand alone. Finding that legitimating framework, lifting China above just being a grievance-fueled regional bully, is the next large debate in Chinese foreign policy: the floor is open to suggestions.

Robert Kelly

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